WEEKLY QUOTE

“Love is the master key that opens the gates of happiness.”
- Oliver Wendell Holmes

WEEKLY TIP

If you want to improve your credit score, an inactive credit card will not help (and it may even hurt). The key factors in credit score determination are recent activity and recent payment history.

OIL APProaches $110 PER BARREL

As NYMEX crude futures settled at $109.77 Friday, economists wondered how the U.S. consumer might cope if $5 gas became a reality. Spurred by supply concerns and heightened tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, crude had its best week in three months: futures gained $6.17 (5.96%) across five trading days. Retail gas prices finished last week at $3.65 per gallon, a high unseen since last June.

MORE HOMES MOVING ON THE MARKET
Existing home sales were up again in January – the National Association of Realtors reported a 4.3% monthly increase. Seasonally adjusted, sales have risen 8% since August. New home sales (a smaller portion of the residential real estate market) declined 0.9% in January, but largely as an effect of the Commerce Department revising December sales figures upward. Without those revisions, the indicator would have been strongly in the plus column. Last month, the new home inventory decreased to the lowest level since January 2006.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP SLIGHTLY
The final Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February came in at 75.3 last week – a 12-month peak, and just a bit north of the 75.0 reading at the end of January. Economists polled by Briefing.com had projected a final February mark of 73.0.

STOCKS & GOLD POST FURTHER GAINS

The Dow ended the week at 12,982.95, the NASDAQ at 2,963.78 and the S&P 500 at 1,365.74. That was the S&P’s highest close since June 5, 2008. It also represented a 102% rise from its March 2009 bottom. On the week, the S&P gained 0.33%, the DJIA 0.26% and the NASDAQ 0.41%. Gold wrapped up the week at $1,776.40 on the COMEX after advancing 2.93% in five days.

THIS WEEK: A new NAR pending home sales index comes out Monday, along with earnings from Lowe’s, HSBC and Priceline. Tuesday, we have the February Conference Board consumer confidence poll, the December S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and data on January durable goods orders plus earnings reports from Office Depot and DreamWorks. Wednesday offers the second estimate of Q4 GDP, a new Federal Reserve Beige Book and quarterly results from Staples and Costco. Thursday is just as big as Tuesday, with the January consumer spending figures coming out along with ISM’s newest manufacturing index, the latest initial claims report, Commerce Department data on February auto sales and earnings from Wendy’s, Kroger and Big Lots. Friday, nothing major is scheduled.

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/24/12^2,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“In times of rapid change, experience could be your worst enemy.”
- J. Paul Getty

CONSUMER PRICES UP 0.2% for January

Major factors in this increase in the Consumer Price Index include a 0.9% rise in the price of clothing as well as rising rents and healthcare costs. Core CPI also rose 0.2% in January. The annualized inflation rate hit 2.3% last month, yet the Federal Reserve expects but a 1.6% gain in the CPI across 2012. Wholesale inflation ticked up 0.1% for January, with the core Producer Price Index up 0.4%.

RETAIL SALES FALL SHORT OF (HIGH) EXPECTATIONS
The Census Bureau reported a healthy 0.4% rise in U.S. retail purchases for January. However, economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires thought they would rise 0.9% for the month. Subtract a 1.1% decline in auto sales from the data, and retail sales were up 0.7% for January.

LEADING INDICATORS Hit 3½-YEAR PEAK
The Conference Board’s Leading Indicator Index rose 0.4% in January, with seven of ten indicators improving. (The most notable positive detected: a widening in the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.) The index advanced for a fourth consecutive month.

NASDAQ 3,000? DOW 13,000?

Both indices approached those psychological landmarks on Friday. The Dow went +1.16% for the week, the NASDAQ +1.65% and the S&P 500 +1.38%. At week’s end, the Dow was at 12,949.87, the NASDAQ at 2,951.78 and the S&P at 1,361.23. Oil futures soared 4.63% last week on the NYMEX to settle at $103.24 a barrel Friday. Gold had a flat week, settling at $1,724.50 Friday on the COMEX following a 0.07% five-day advance.

THIS WEEK: U.S. financial markets are closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday; big news could come out of Europe Monday, as Eurozone finance ministers could greenlight a new bailout package for Greece. Tuesday, earnings reports roll in from Barnes & Noble, Macy’s, Dell, Saks, Wal-Mart, Kraft Foods, Home Depot and Radio Shack. Wednesday, the NAR puts out data on January existing home sales and quarterly results come in from Toll Bros., MGM, TJX, Dollar Tree, Fluor, Conseco, Hertz and Hewlett-Packard. Thursday brings earnings from Target, Kohl’s, Hormel, OfficeMax, Safeway, Sears, Public Storage, Gap and AIG. Friday, the final University Of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February appears, the Census Bureau publishes January new home sales figures and J.C. Penney, Scripps and Berkshire Hathaway issue Q4 results.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“A successful person is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him or her.”

- David Brinkley

WEEKLY RIDDLE
A train moving as fast as it can go strikes a man’s hand, yet he is uninjured and the train goes off its tracks. Under what circumstances could this happen?

Last week’s riddle:
The wind is blowing east through the mountains. A lone pine tree stands on a cliff. Which way do its leaves blow?
Last week’s answer:
A pine tree has needles, not leaves. So no leaves are blowing in the first place.

WILL THE MORTGAGE ACCORD BRING MUCH RELIEF?
While the $25+ billion settlement reached last week between five large mortgage servicers and 49 states was momentous, it may not help many borrowers in trouble. Only about 1 million of the estimated 11 million underwater homeowners will see relief as loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t included in the deal. Much of the settlement money will go toward mortgage modification. Roughly 750,000 homeowners are slated to receive financial compensation from the accord (an average of about $2,000 per household). The lenders involved are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Ally Financial, Citigroup and Wells Fargo; other banks could join them. (The state of Oklahoma forged its own agreement with the five lenders.)

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TAKES A DIP
The University of Michigan’s initial February consumer sentiment survey fell to 72.5 from its one-year peak of 75.0 at the end of January. Economists polled by Bloomberg News had expected a 74.8 reading. However, the percentage of consumers who felt the jobless rate would fall in future months was at the highest level the survey had seen in 28 years.

STOCKS RETREAT FOR THE WEEK ON FRIDAY LOSSES
When the Dow’s worst day of 2012 brings only an 89-point loss, it seems the year is off to a good start. That loss occurred Friday after another stall in the Greek debt negotiations. On the week, the major U.S. indices pulled back a bit: DJIA, -0.47% to 12,801.23; S&P 500, -0.17% to 1,342.64; NASDAQ, -0.06% to 2,903.88.

THIS WEEK: Monday, President Obama submits his 2013 fiscal budget proposal to Congress. Tuesday, the Census Bureau publishes January retail sales figures and MetLife issues Q4 earnings. Wednesday, the Fed issues the 1/25 FOMC minutes, the federal government comes out with figures on January industrial output and Q4 results arrive from Comcast, Deere, CBS, Abercrombie & Fitch and Nvidia. On Thursday, General Motors, Nordstrom and Baidu come out with earnings and new initial jobless claims are announced; January’s PPI is also released plus data on January housing starts, and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at an FDIC hearing. Friday, January’s CPI comes out along with the Conference Board’s newest leading economic indicator index; Q4 results come in from Heinz and Campbell’s Soup.

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/10/126,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“If you would be loved, love and be lovable.”
- Benjamin Franklin

JOBLESS RATE DOWN TO 8.3%

Are we seeing a trend here? The unemployment rate has now fallen 0.8% in the last six months. We haven’t seen a descent this sharp and swift since 1984. January hiring blew away forecasts: the Labor Department said the economy added 243,000 jobs last month, while economists polled by Briefing.com expected non-farm payrolls to grow by 155,000 positions. The labor force hasn’t grown so much in a month since last April, and the numbers are making analysts wonder if the Federal Reserve will tinker with interest rates months ahead of expectations.

HOUSEHOLDS SAVE FIRST, SPEND SECOND

Consumer spending was flat in December after gains of just 0.1% in November and October. More significantly, consumer incomes rose 0.5% for December and so did the personal savings rate. People essentially put the extra money in the bank. In related news, the federal government estimated 2011 GDP at 1.7%, about half of the economic growth seen in 2010.

BOTH ISM INDEXES RISE
The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched purchasing manager indexes signaled expanding service and manufacturing sectors in January. ISM’s service sector PMI improved 3.8% to 56.8. Its manufacturing PMI advanced 1.0% to 54.1.

CASE-SHILLER INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
This was the third straight monthly dip for the 20-city roundup of residential home prices. The latest available edition (November) showed a 1.3% monthly retreat in prices with a 3.7% year-over-year drop.

NASDAQ TOPS 2,900

The tech-heavy index closed at an 11-year high Friday: 2,905.66. The Dow settled at 12, 862.23 at week’s end, its best close since May 2008. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 1,344.90. The weekly gains: DJIA, 1.59%; S&P, 2.17%; NASDAQ, 3.16%.

THIS WEEK: Earnings take center stage in a stretch without much economic data. Monday brings Q4 results from Yum Brands, Humana and Hasbro. Tuesday, earnings arrive from Disney, UBS, Toyota, BP, Coca-Cola and Hartford Financial. Wednesday, Groupon, VISA, CVS, Sprint Nextel, Time Warner and Cisco join in. Thursday, the Bank of England and ECB wrap up policy meetings; new initial claims figures complement earnings reports from Expedia, PepsiCo, Dunkin’ Brands, Sirius XM Radio, Rio Tinto and Credit Suisse. Friday, the University of Michigan’s initial February consumer sentiment survey comes out plus Q4 results from Barclays.

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/3/12^1,7,8,9  Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.